Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute`s scientists told about current situation in Ukraine and Kyiv during the quarantine

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The team of the World Data Center "Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development" at Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute got the new prognosis data about the distribution of coronavirus in Ukraine and Kyiv during next five days.

The prognosis is executed with the use of multi-layered neural network of Back Propagation. It showed a decline to speed of distribution of pandemic in Ukraine in the next 5 days with the level of - (300-400) new infected per day and to the level of recovered people (300-350) per day.

This level of new infected people can lay (40-50) down on a day and for recovered people (20-30) on a day for Kyiv, during the following 5 days.

It is important that during the last month the amount of recovered people in Ukraine gradually approaches to an amount of infected, as well as showed the results of research of command of project from 01.05.2020.

It is expected that at the end of May this balance can become positive proof, that will witness beginning of slump of pandemic, completion of the first wave of that it is envisaged to the end of September, 2020. The appearance of the second wave of pandemic is not eliminated in winter period of 2020-2021, but with less amplitude.

A middle absolute error in the percents did not exceed 1.78% for Ukraine and 2.26% for Kyiv of the executed short-term prognosis on the span of time (6.05.20 - 20.05.20) on the basis of mechanism of sliding window. Scientists mark that on the greater volumes of data (as it takes place for Ukraine in comparing to Kyiv) a neural network of Back Propagation is less sensible to short-term indignations and splashes and allows to get the less error of prognosis.


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