The scientists of Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute predict a possible recession of coronavirus pandemics in late May

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The project team "FORESIGHT COVID-19" of the World Data Center "Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development" at Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute predicts a possible recession of coronavirus pandemics in the third decade of May. Until then, the evolution of the pandemic will be linear.

The results of short-term predictive modelling of the number of patients with COVID-19 in Ukraine and Kyiv during 16.05.20 - 20.05.20 were obtained using a multilayer neural network Back Propagation based on the mechanism of "sliding window" with the number of data points for neural network training - 12.

For Ukraine, in the fifteen days (06.05.20 - 20.05.20) the nature of the pandemic evolution becomes clearer and linear with the level of "plateau" - 400-550 new infected per day.

According to the results of the forecast modelling of the "FORSITE COVID-19" project team, this nature of the process development may continue until the third decade of May 2020, when the pandemic is likely to peak. After that, the pandemic is likely to decline (the number of people recovering daily will be steadily higher than the number of people infected daily). 

For Kyiv city, during the fifteen days (06.05.20 - 20.05.20) the process of the pandemic evolution is still more non-stationary with a probable decrease in its volatility and the acquisition of a clearer and linear nature next week with the level of "plateau" - 40-50 new infected per day.

The average absolute error as a percentage of the forecast for the fifteen days (06.05.20 - 20.05.20) does not exceed 2.2%.

The number of daily recovered people in Ukraine is approaching the number of daily infected people (on 14.05.20 this balance was even positive one day). The project team expects that in the third decade of May, this balance may become consistently positive, indicating the beginning of a pandemic decline.

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